Taken from London’s Sunday Times Article on August 17, 2008

Is it time to back America again?

Investors are looking for bargains in the US property and stock markets

Jennifer Hill and Kathryn Cooper

Brave investors are starting to back America, the home of the credit crunch, as evidence grows that it could be the first to pull itself out of the global downturn.

The dollar has hit a near two-year high against the pound and a six-month peak against the euro. It has rallied 7% against sterling in the past month - from $2 to $1.86 - gaining 3% in the past week alone.

Traders are betting that central banks will have to cut rates in Britain and the eurozone to avert a recession, whereas in America the next move in rates is likely to be up. Higher interest rates are generally good news for a country’s currency.

“This is the start of a major move: the dollar will get even stronger,” said Alan Steel at Alan Steel Asset Management. “Anyone sitting in a US fund in the last three or four weeks will have seen a nice bounce - anything up to 12%.”

Professionals are more positive about America than they have been for six years, the latest Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers shows. A record net 58% of managers believe the dollar is undervalued, some 38% are most likely to be overweight in the US over the next year, and 12% of asset allocators are currently overweight - meaning they have more than their global benchmark in the country.

Despite huge write-downs in the financial sector, many American companies have strong balance sheets, and Steel believes the US economy is hugely underrated. “If you’re in a storm the safest place to be is in the deep sea, not the shallows, and the economy in the world that represents the deep sea is the US,” he said. “It has shown remarkable resilience. It went into the credit crunch first and it’ll be the first to come out.”
American property might remain in the doldrums, but a growing number of British buyers are seeing opportunities to buy in on the cheap. Foreign-exchange firm World First has seen a 38% year-on-year jump in inquiries from Britons looking to buy in the four months to the end of July.

Around 45% of business at Top Producers Realty, a property broker based in Naples, Florida, has come from Britons so far this year, compared with 28% in 2007.

Craig Peevor, 37, from West Bromwich, works for a property company in Britain and recently bought two bungalows in Buffalo, New York State, for a total of £14,000 and is letting them to American families.
He said: “With the state of the US property market at the moment, I effectively got the bungalow half-price. I am planning to buy one or two properties a year to give me an additional income.”
Those thinking of following in his footsteps should think ahead. “If you’re looking at that US dream home, buying dollars and keeping them in your back pocket may be a very sensible play,” said Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First.

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